The Nordics and Baltics are at the forefront when it comes to electricity generation from renewable sources. In 2021, more than two thirds (68%) of all GWh generated in the region came from hydro, wind and solar. Carbon-emitting burning of fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – amounted to three per cent.

Compare that to the entire continent of Europe, where (in 2020) the share between fossils (38%) and renewables (35%) was roughly even. Looking at global electricity generation (also 2020), we find that 61% of the world’s roughly 27 million GWh had fossil origins. Renewables, meanwhile, delivered 26%, or close to seven million GWh.

But the scene is changing. Thirty years ago, renewables meant hydropower. Wind and solar existed, but with negligible impact on electricity production. Even in Denmark, a global wind power pioneer, only about three per cent of electric power came from wind turbines in 1993.

Looking at the coming three decades, given that coal is being phased out and nuclear technology is facing significant reinvestment needs, Newsec’s prediction for the Nordics and Baltics is that renewable sources will continue growing in share and importance. While the growth capacity for hydro is limited due to various restrictions, wind and solar are estimated to almost triple in volume.

: IEA (Electricity production by source from 

series we publish charts which we find eye-opening, and provide context and commentary.

Where our electricity comes from | Newsec Charts

In the autumn edition of Newsec Property Outlook, Newsec explores the demographic shifts across the Nordic and Baltic countries and their impact on the real estate market. The report highlights the contrasting population trends and provides insights into migration patterns and urban transitions, such as the growing shift of residents from capital cities to smaller towns and suburbs. It also examines the implications of declining birth rates and an ageing population, examining how these factors are affecting various real estate sectors. Regional differences are playing an increasingly important role in guiding strategic investment decisions.

Newsec Property Outlook - Autumn 2024

: Deputy CEO Newsec, Head of Advisory Sweden, Newsec; Multiple Chairman of the Board positions within Newsec Group


: Board member, Fastigo; Board member, ULI Charitable Trust


: MSc in Business Administration, IHM Business School; Diploma in Management, Henley Business School


Associate Director, Head of Research

PRIVATE LEJEBOLIGER OPLEVER STIGENDE POPULARITET

Det er et af resultaterne i en analyse fra Newsec om den fremtidige udvikling på boligmarkedet. I rapporten kan man bl.a. læse, at den demografiske udvikling skaber behov for flere boliger. Udviklingen er dog meget forskellig i de forskellige dele af landet, og samtidig ser byggeriet ud til at falde fra et historisk set højt niveau. Efterspørgslen efter private lejeboliger har i mange år været markant højere end efter andre boligformer. Private lejeboliger er blevet en relativt billigere boligform sammenlignet med ejerboliger og vil fortsat være det i de kommende par år.

 Danmarks befolkning vokser. Ved årets start var vi 5,96 mio. indbyggere, og i 2028 ventes vi at runde 6 mio. Befolkningsudviklingen giver en god indikation af fremtidens behov for boliger.
”Vores analyse viser, at der bliver behov for flere boliger i fremtiden. I 2030 vil der være behov for 60.000 flere boliger sammenlignet med 2024, og efterspørgslen vil fortsætte med at stige på længere sigt. Udviklingen drives af en kombination af befolkningsvækst og mindre husstandene”, forklarer analysechef Robin Rich fra Newsec.

Boligbehov og husstandsstørrelse i Danmark 2010-2030

Ti kommuner vil stå for over halvdelen af behovet for flere boliger.

 Bag den overordnede udvikling i Danmark gemmer der sig betydelige forskelle mellem landets kommuner.

”Vores analyse viser, at behovet for boliger stiger i 71 ud af landets 98 kommuner, og falder i 27. Blandt de områder med relativt størst vækst findes en række store jyske byer og i dele af Hovedstadsregionen, hvor behovet stiger med 5-10%. De ti hurtigst voksende kommuner, målt på boligbehovet, tegner sig for 58% af den samlede vækst frem mod 2030”

, siger Steen Malmberg, chef for offentlige kunder i Newsec.

 Boligbyggeriet er på retur efter et kraftigt boom i årene 2019-2023, hvor der blev fuldført over 37.000 nye boliger i gennemsnit pr. år. Byggeriet faldt i 2023, og den udvikling ser ud til at fortsætte. Den igangværende byggeaktivitet peger i retning af, at der kommer markant færre nye boliger i 2024 og 2025. Hvad der sker herefter afhænger af, hvad bygherrerne beslutter at igangsætte fra nu af. Newsec’s analyse forudser et årligt gennemsnit på 21.000 nye boliger frem mod 2030. I perioden 2010-2023 blev der bygget 25.000 boliger årligt.

Kraftig vækst i private lejeboliger siden 2010.

 Den samlede boligbenyttelse er steget med 11% siden 2010, men efterspørgslen efter de forskellige boligtyper har udviklet sig meget forskelligt. Antallet af private lejeboliger er vokset med 42%, mens de almene lejeboliger er øget med 7%. I samme periode er ejerboliger kun steget med 4%, mens andelsboliger er faldet med 1%.

Lejeboliger er blevet en relativt billigere boligform.

 Private lejeboligers stigende popularitet skal bl.a. ses i lyset af, at det er blevet en relativt billigere boligform. Huslejen i private lejeboliger er steget mindre end den tilsvarende boligudgift forbundet med at bo i ejerbolig. Den væsentligste årsag hertil er udviklingen på ejerboligmarkedet, hvor boligpriserne steg kraftigt fra midten af 2010’erne og frem til 2022. Stigende renter har dæmpet prisudviklingen siden 2022, men har samtidig presset boligydelsen mærkbart op.

”I København er den økonomiske balance tippet fra ejerbolig til lejebolig. Den udvikling har været særligt tydelig siden 2022, hvor de kraftigt stigende renter har påvirket den relative balance. Jeg tror, at balancen vil tippe lidt tilbage i 2024 og 2025, fordi huslejen fortsætter opad, mens boligudgiften i ejerbolig stagnerer. Vores analyse viser dog at leje fortsat vil være en økonomisk set mere overkommelig boligform end eje”

, siger Morten Jensen, adm. direktør i Newsec Advisory.

Månedlige boligudgifter i København 2010-2024

Læs rapporten: "Danmarks fremtidige boligmarked"

Robin Rich, Head of Research / robin.rich@newsec.dk / +45 20 60 57 37

Private lejeboliger oplever stigende popularitet

I denne udgave af Newsec Property Outlook præsenterer Newsec analyser af ejendomstendenser ved hjælp af kunstig intelligens. Med ChatGPT-4, en avanceret AI-model, udforsker Newsec AI's potentiale til at forudsige transaktionsvolumener og nøglerente i Norden og Baltikum. Yderligere undersøger Newsec det delvist uudnyttede potentiale i lette industriejendomme og følger ChatGPT's anbefaling om at investere i logistikejendomme, udelukkende baseret på segmentets hurtige vækst i de senere år.

Newsec Property Outlook - Forår 2024

Although the technical system is still part of the Telephone House at Borups Allé, the technique does not take up nearly as much space as it used to. This has contributed to space available for other purposes.
An optimization of the property has been implemented, where large areas for technical purposes were converted into primarily office space for the benefit of other companies. Over time, the property has evolved from a domicile to a multi-user house with different tenants, as our customer no longer has the same space needs.
NEWSEC has also rented 1,500 m² on the ground floor to the REPEAT fitness center. The other vacant areas are converted primarily into offices, with a central and visible location, close to 2 metro stations and to a reasonable rent and total economy. Renting for public use was not surprising.

We have now completed 3 rentals in total, of which 2 to the Municipality of Copenhagen totaling 16,000 m².

Another lease on behalf of TDC to Copenhagen municipality

Newsec acted as exclusive financial adviser to Alight AB – a leading grid-scale and behind-the-meter solar developer – on raising a EUR 150 million committed investment in combination secondary sale of shares from a number of existing shareholders.

Following the investment, Alight will transition into becoming a fully integrated solar focused independent power producer. With the capital raised, Alight will accelerate the buildout of its near-term pipeline of solar projects. Through the committed investment and the secondary buy-out, DIF Capital Partners, as manager of DIF Fund VII (together “DIF”), will acquire a majority stake in the Company.

Commenting on the investment, Alight CEO Dr Harald Overholm said:

“I am proud of Alight’s journey so far and this investment will accelerate our leadership in the subsidy-free solar build-out. Our delivery of solar-as-a-service to major power users makes us a natural partner to companies of all sizes and industries. We are excited to work closely with DIF on progressing the corporate transition to renewables; they share our vision for the industry and the urgency of our work to accelerate the energy transition. Corporate power usage accounts for up to 70% of global electricity consumption, so making a prompt and effective shift to renewable energy is crucial. Solar remains the cheapest and quickest energy source to scale, so building more to deliver energy security and reduce emissions is crucial.”

Nine years on from its founding in 2013, Alight is now a leader in Europe’s commercial solar roll-out through its subsidy-free approach to solar PPAs. In its native Nordics, Alight has over 1 GW pipeline of projects under development, much of which will be built out within the next 24 months. Alight also has an additional 170 MW pipeline under development across Europe.

Commenting on the cooperation with Newsec Infra, Alight CEO Dr Harald Overholm continued:

“We thank the Newsec team for the high-quality support throughout the process. The team’s depth of experience and dedication for renewables was of key importance in enabling and shaping this pioneering transaction within Nordic solar”

Commenting on their investment in Alight, Gijs Voskuyl, Partner of DIF and Head of Investments for DIF Infrastructure VII, said:

“We have been impressed by Alight’s track record as a first mover in the growing Nordic solar market, in addition to their top quality customer-led approach to winning long-term solar contracts. We also share Alight’s vision on how to accelerate the energy transition in Europe and more specifically for their C&I customers, whilst also providing them with energy security at low cost in the current high power price environment. Alight’s team and outlook are a strong foundation to build upon and we are pleased to take this step, enabling Alight to realise its growth ambitions.”

Omid Ashrafi, Managing Partner at Newsec , commented:

“It has been a great pleasure to work with the Alight team on the process that ultimately led to the partnership with DIF. The deal is done via an innovative financing structure providing downside protection, making it suitable for an infra fund, while providing Alight the capital needed for its next growth phase and its founders and management strong incentives for their continued value creation.”

https://www.alight-energy.com/news/dif-capital-partners-invests-e150-million-in-alight

Newsec advises on raising a EUR 150 million investment

Newsec acted as exclusive financial adviser to Mirova, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Management dedicated to sustainable investment via its funds Mirova Eurofideme 3 and Mirova Renewable Co-Investment 1, and to Eolus Wind (jointly the “Sellers”) on the sale of an operating wind farm portfolio in Sweden. The portfolio includes the 19.8 MW Långmarken wind farm in Kristinehamn, Southern Sweden (SE3) and the 27.6 MW Våsberget wind farm in Ljusdal, Northern Sweden (SE2).

The sale marks the Sellers’ exit from the portfolio following the pre-construction investment decision in 2015 and the first five years of operations. Both wind farms have been operational since 2017 and offer a versatile multi-option PPA offtake framework with Statkraft until 2032, allowing for short and medium-term strategic adaptability.

The portfolio is acquired by Glennmont Partners (“Glennmont”), Nuveen Infrastructure’s clean energy specialist and one of the world’s largest fund managers investing in clean energy. The investment is Glennmont’s first from their open-ended €700m brownfield European renewable infrastructure fund, which Glennmont launched with Dutch investor MN last year.

Commenting on the investment, Raphaël Lance, Head of Energy Transition Funds at Mirova said:

“We are proud to have brought in operation this Swedish portfolio with the help of initial developers and construction companies Eolus and RES Renewables Norden and with the support of our co-investor EIB. After almost six years of operations, in line with our third fund mandate, we are delighted to hand it over to the experienced teams at Nuveen.”

Commenting on the cooperation with Newsec Infra, Raphaël Lance continued:

“As in 2015, we are very satisfied by Newsec Infra’s support on this transaction. Through its deep knowledge of the Nordics environment and its considerable experience, Newsec Infra ensured a smooth and reliable sale process, which brought significant value for both the seller and the buyer.”

Omid Ashrafi, Managing Partner at Newsec commented:

“We are very thankful for the vote of confidence, being able to support this transaction. We worked with Mirova at the time of their investment decision in Våsberget in 2015 and now have the pleasure of also following this project, as part of the portfolio, all the way to exit in operating phase. Due to the rapid build-out of onshore wind in Sweden, we now have a considerable asset base forming an increasingly active secondary market. “Project Blizzard” is our third Nordic operating wind farm transaction signed in 2022. I believe that we will continue to see new inflow of capital for construction of renewable energy assets as well as into transactions with operating assets”.

Newsec advises on 47 MW operating wind portfolio in Sweden

Newsec acted as exclusive financial adviser to international solar developer ib vogt on its sale of a 206 MWp solar PV project to Finnish energy company Helen. The solar farm is located in Kalanti, Uusikaupunki, in South-West Finland and is ready to be built. As part of the offered turn-key solution, ib vogt will provide full EPC, O&M and Asset Management services and start construction in the second quarter 2023.

With the location in Finland having similar solar radiation levels to northern Germany, the solar power plant is expected to produce more than 200 GWh of clean energy per year, once it reaches commercial operation starting in late 2024. The solar project marks a milestone for ib vogt as the first plant to be built in a Nordic country and is exemplary for the continuous growth and internationalization of the company. The PV farm will consist of more than 380,000 high-capacity bifacial solar modules built on a fixed-tilt substructure for optimal performance. The panels will produce clean solar electricity equivalent to the average annual consumption of approximately 28,800 households, while saving up to 17,600 tons of CO2 per year.

Commenting on the sale, Hamish Duncan, Head of Project Sales at ib vogt said:

“We are very pleased to have completed the Kalanti transaction with Helen, and look forward to our continued partnership as the project now moves into construction and operations. The project marks a significant milestone for both ib vogt and the renewable energy market in Finland, and we are excited to further build upon this success in the years to come. We thank the Newsec Infra team for their dedication to driving the process forward and solution-orientated approach to the transaction – their depth of expertise in Nordic renewable energy M&A is evident, and we are very pleased to have cooperated with them.”

“We are delighted to work with ib vogt on this sales process and to conclude the transaction with Helen. While we have in recent years been part of a number of large-scale onshore wind deals, this is a landmark solar PV transaction for the Nordic market. The combination of ib vogt’s international expertise and track record within PV and Helen’s position as a leading power producer in Finland, expanding its production mix with solar makes this an interesting partnership. This sale marks Newsec Infra’s third large solar transaction in the Nordics this year.”